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2016 Conference Presentation

Dementia United Kingdom

6 September 2016

Modelling dementia care pathways in low, middle and high income countries

Adelina Comas-Herrera, PSSRU, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom


While dementia is often seen as a problem of the developed world, the numbers of older people are increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries, which is resulting in huge rises in the numbers of people living with dementia. In the context of the need for countries to adapt their existing care pathways, or to start developing a service infrastructure to meet the needs of people with dementia and their families, this presentation will report on a project that explores what would be the economic impact of implementing evidence-based dementia care pathways in Canada, China, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea and Switzerland by 2030.

The project consists of three parts. The first part involves a review of the literature on care pathways which will result in recommendations of care pathways for low-, middle- and high-income countries, distinguishing between pathways for those with mild, moderate and severe dementia.

The second part of the project involves describing the current dementia care in each of the countries, including the demographic, geographical and economic contexts, and also the health and social care systems through which care and treatments are delivered. Simple simulation models will be built for each of the countries, in order to show the impact of demographic change in the future numbers of older people with dementia, their use of health and social care, and the costs of that care.

Finally, the models will be used to simulate the impact of implementing better care pathways, considering in particular the coverage of services that would be required and the costs of those services, assuming that the care pathways would be fully implemented by 2030 and will simulate a stepping-up process from the current levels of care in five year intervals.


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