Skip to content
Globe Icon

Projections of long-term care expenditure on older people living with dementia in England, 2015 to 2040

2018 Conference Presentation

Dementia EnglandUnited Kingdom

11 September 2018

Projections of long-term care expenditure on older people living with dementia in England, 2015 to 2040

Bo Hu, London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom

Raphael Wittenberg PSSRU, London School of Economics and Political Science
Derek King PSSRU, London School of Economics and Political Science
Amritpal Rehill PSSRU, London School of Economics and Political Science
Adelina Comas-Herrera PSSRU, London School of Economics and Political Science
Carol Jagger Newcastle University
Martin Knapp PSSRU, London School of Economics and Political Science

Abstract

Objectives: This study makes projections on long-term care receipt and expenditure among older people living with dementia in England between 2015 and 2040.

Methods: We built a projection model using the macrosimulation approach. Our analyses drew on three sources of data: (1) numbers of older people with dementia projected by the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model; (2) the Cognitive Function & Ageing Study II (CFAS II) which collected information on receipt of long-term care services (including both unpaid care and formal care services) and cognitive functioning in the older population in Cambridgeshire, Newcastle and Nottingham between 2008 and 2011; (3) the Modelling Outcome and Cost Impacts of Interventions of Dementia (MODEM) project cohort which includes 300 people with a clinical diagnosis of dementia and their main carers in Sussex England.

Results: The total number of older people who live with dementia and need to receive long-term care is projected to more than double in 2040. The long-term care expenditure will need to be nearly three times larger by 2040 . The tripling expenditure is due to both demographic pressure in the context of population ageing and expected real rises in wages in the social care sector.

Conclusion: Both the demand for and the expenditure on long-term care services are expected to increase greatly over the coming decades in England. A better integration between health and social care services, effective prevention programmes, and a productive workforce of carers will be essential to promote healthy ageing, improve the quality of life for people with dementia, and address the economic challenges associated with dementia care.