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2012 Conference Presentation

EconomicsFunding/purchasing EnglandUnited Kingdom

7 September 2012

Projections of aggregate public and private expenditures under different scenarios for reform of the system of funding long-term care

Raphael Wittenberg, London School of Economics, United Kingdom
Adelina Comas-Herrera, London School of Economics, United Kingdom


The presentation examines alternative assumptions about the future development of the private insurance market in England, and considers their likely implications for the sharing of responsibilities over the funding of care between the state and private individuals.

First, the presentation introduces the current funding system in England, and considers some of the factors explaining the current lack of pre-funded long-term care insurance market in the UK and the absence of prospects of such products developing in the foreseeable future without changes in government policy. The paper then examines the impact of the proposals for a limited liability capped cost system recommended in 2011 by the Dilnot Commission set-up by the UK government. Estimates of public and private expenditure projections will be presented for this system without any long-term care insurance and under scenarios involving illustrative potential purchase of insurance products. Finally, the presentation will explore the costs associated with variant reforms that may be announced in the government’s White Paper expected in April 2012, focusing in particular on their likely impact on public and private expenditures with and without purchase of long-term care insurance as feasible and appropriate


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